2012 Metro Denver Economic Forecast

I recently attended a Metro Denver 2012 Economic Forecast presentation titled “Remodeling the Economy” put on by Patricia Silverstein.  Patricia serves as the consulting chief economist for the Metro Denver Economic Development Corp. and the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce.  In these roles, she compiles, interprets, and forecasts economic and demographic data for the Denver metropolitan area and performs in-depth research on issues and proposed developments impacting the region (according to Development Research Partner‘s website).

Below are some interesting tidbits I collected regarding the Metro Denver Economy (defined as a 7 county region including: Adams. Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson) in 2012:

  • 2012 will be very similar to 2011 with a continued trend of slow growth
  • The Consumer Confidence Index shows that the consumer confidence in the mountain region is down, but remains aligned with the national index
  • Forecasting a 1.4% growth in population (currently at 2.8 million)
  • The unemployment rate has increased since 2002, but continues to mirrors the movement of the national rate
  • The number of existing homes sold in 2011 was 39,387.  She is forecasting a 3% increase in sales for 2012.  This would put the number of sales closer to the 40,500 mark, which is a sustainable number for Metro Denver.  She warns that total sales above 47,000 may not be sustainable for Metro Denver.  FYI, years 2002 to 2008 saw total sales above 47,000.  Years 2004 to 2006 had total sales above 50,000.
  • There is slight concern with the median home prices of Metro Denver compared to the U.S.  In 2011, Metro Denver’s median home price was $230,000 compared to $165,000 in the U.S.  This could be a concerning factor for companies looking to relocate here.
  • Foreclosed homes in Metro Denver was 16,755 in 2011.  She is predicting that number to decrease by 11% in 2012.  FYI, years 2007 through 2010 had foreclosures above 23,000.
  • Colorado has the 8th lowest mortgage delinquency rate in the U.S.
  • Residential building permits (single family, two family and multi-family) have significantly slowed since 2009, with 2011 having around 5,900 housing starts.  She is expecting that number to increase slightly, but not by much.  FYI, the 30 year average for housing starts per year is around 17,000.
  • The vacancy rate for 2011 was at 5.1% which has decreased .8% from 2010.
  • The most exciting forecast she gave was a 3% appreciation in home prices for 2012!

See also: BUYER’S MARKET, Denver Real Estate Market, The #1 Question I Was Asked Over the Holidays… and the most recent Monthly Economic Summary (December 2011)

Now is the time to take advantage of this opportunistic real estate market in Metro Denver, contact me today to discuss how your opportunities!


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